Dust is starting to settle in Turkey after an election night that was confusing, tense and veeeery long, with the opposition contesting official results that put president Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a comfortable lead, but just short of the 50% threshold that would have prevented a second round. All analysts agreed before Sunday that this would be the most hotly contested election in many years. And it was so, but less so than expected. It is true that in the presidential election there will be a runoff for the first time next May 28, but the opposition candidate, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu faces an uphill battle. Here there are my five quick takes on the Turkish elections:
- The victory of identity over liberal democracy. Both contenders were happy to portray this election as a choice between identity and liberal democracy. While the opposition’s main promise was to return the country to a parliamentary system in order to stop the current authoritarian drift, Erdogan stressed that he was the champion of national values and independence othering Kiliçdaroglu. The fact that the president closed his campaign with a prayer in Hagia Sophia, as sultans used to do before a crucial battle, speaks volumes. Erdogan’s strategy to use identity politics in order to retain voters who are unsatisfied with the economic crisis worked perfectly.
- The earthquake did not change the equation. A few weeks ago, it seemed that the earthquake that devastated several cities of the south could be crucial in the ballot boxes. At the moment, and when all votes are not counted yet, we can say that the government’s controversial management of the disaster was not key to sway voters. It is true that in the most affected provinces, the support for Erdogan and his AKP diminished, but only slightly, as it happened in the rest of the country. In 2018, Erdogan got 52.5% of the vote, so he roughly lost only 3% of that support, not enough for the opposition.