Here are some impressions after some hours running around the voting polls in Cairo (don’t forget that here there are two voting days):
–Excitement about the elections: In the metro, in the coffe shops, in the elevator, everywhere the conversations seemed to revolve around a single topic: THE ELECTIONS. Voters are aware of the importance and historic nature of these elections.
-Moussa and Abulfoutouh down: In the previous weeks of the elections, Moussa and Abulfoutouh were considered the favorites. However, in the last phase of the campaigns their support has clearly gone down. Moussa may still make it to the second round, but Abulfoutouh seems done.
-Morsi and Shafik and Sabahi up: The support for all these candidates has gone up in the last days weeks. The amazing electoral machine of the Brotherhood has been able to prop up a bad candidate like Morsi at the expense of Abulfoutouh. On the other hand, Shafik and Sabahi have eaten a chunks of Moussa’s cake.
-Morsi vs Moussa?: After the melting of Abulfoutoh, this looks now like the most likely run-off. However, the Shafiq surge introduces and element of uncertainty. Could it be Morsi vs. Shafiq? If so, the tension in the coming weeks would be huge, since both candidates represent opposite extremes.
-A larger turnout: The queues in front of the polling places were similar to those in the parlamentary elections. However, it is quite likely that more voters turn out tomorrow, learning from the experience of December. In those elections, the second day experienced almost no queues. Therefore, the turnout should be bigger than then. Some experts put it at 60%, ten points more.